· AOPA, EAA GAMA, NBAA and LAMA should fund an in depth study of pilot population , using SRI Psychographics (VALSTM) (http://www.sric-bi.com/VALS/projects.shtml) or similar modern demographic methodology to target clients with a specificity down to towns, zip codes and neighborhoods.
· Increase effectiveness, saturation, and quantity of TV commercials. Current efforts seem, to me, few in quantity, amateurish, unfocused, and ineffectual. An example is EAA “Reach for the Sky” motto that reminds me of Black Bart holding up a stage coach in a Hopalong Cassidy serial movie (showing my age), or last years GAMA commercial showing an aircraft flying aimlessly among clouds and over grassy plains. Blah! How about commercials contrasting other forms of transportation, e.g. a full six place (Piper Saratoga/Six) plane flying over vast traffic jams to show GA utility.
· Female pilots comprise 5% of the pilot population, if I remember correctly, so their numbers need to increase. Marketing to women will have an immediate effect, but marketing to women required a different approach then the male market, so get a marketing co. specializing in women. According to the books I’ve read, men would get the new approach also, so you get a twofer.
· Make owning aircraft easier. AOPA, et al., should update current “how-to’s” and add turnkey contract and bylaw templates (with the usual caveats and disclaimers) for buying used aircraft, forming partnerships, flying clubs and fractional ownership agreements for used and lower value aircraft. The turnkey would include the ins and outs, advantages/disadvantages, and tax consequences between partnerships, LLC’s, or S corporation.
· Owning and operating an airplane is too expensive for the average pilot. To stimulate aircraft production and support flight schools, flying clubs, etc., lobby to bring back the Investment Tax Credit on a sliding scale. 15% credit for new aircraft, avionics and accessories 75% of which are produced in the USA and used for business, and 5% for new aircraft, avionics, and accessories, produced in other countries and used for business. Add Accelerated Depreciation in the witches brew to complete the incentives.
· An Industry standard rental aircraft checkout, supported by major insurance carriers, could facilitate increasing the utility of light planes. I realize variants of this have failed in the past, though I believe involving insurance carriers and AOPA, GAMA maybe NAFI with specific criteria and Approved Instructors (such as Cirrus certification) can add a fun dimension to a pilots vacation while adding income to FBO’s.
· Current ground school courses such as King and Cessna integrated system (developed by King) are great, but more integrated systems need to be developed (or Cessna license theirs) for seamless learning.
· Industry must setup easy student loan processes with long payback periods to enable more to fly cheaply.

Flying has been a lifelong dream of mine. I would jump through any hoops, and submit to any tests to be able to fly. I cannot tell you how disheartened I am. If I knew of a way to change the ruling I would work toward it.

If the airlines and some politions get their way, and user fees come, it will get a lot worse.

Who would be served by “fixing” this problem. It would mean fewer people would start taking lessons, thus lowering income for those who invest in equipment, training and service. If all you want to do is lower the drop out rate I would suggest that you require the CFI to provide an assesment of the students weakness and cost to address them. Up until this point they are not students, just passengers, in fact perhaps no one should be called a student until they solo, that might fix the statistics. So might a realistic estimate of cost.
I however believe you ARE addressing the real problem, fewer people fly GA. Alas it is even worse, many who are merely see it as a career path.

So do we make it easier to attain a ticket? There probably are some things that could be done. All a private pilot needs to know about A airspace is that they can’t go there. GPS could ease navigation and elimentate some other training…But this would really be more under the heading of fine tunning. No we do not wish more poorly trained people in the air.
The only solution I can offer is less poor trainning. Every lesson should have a clear goal, in fact it could be rehearsed on a home computer prior to flying. Get the nuts and bolts out of the way early. Now you can learn critical thinking…and lets stop calling it that. IT IS COMMON SENSE. If you take off you must _____. How are you going to do that if you can not see the airport? Look for a reason not to fly when you are on the ground. Look for a reason to land when you are in the air. Why was I never taught or read this directly?
Better instruction is the only answer I see. The only way to get better instruction is to reward the good instructors with a good living and great instructors with a great livning.
I am part of the problem. I have rewarded poor teachers with my support. NO more. (currntly searching for instructor number 3. #1 could be a fantastic instructor, #2 should not have been instructing.)
I feel I expressed enough negative thoughts,
WELL DONE:
Sport pilot…. a great idea.
Flight planner…. see what a computer can do!
On line courses… exellent, ( well very good, my fault, dial up…)
THANK YOU.

I share your concern about the decline in General Aviation — especially at the
“bottom end.” During the great decline in the manufacturing of aircraft in the 1980′s the dollar figure remained about the same while the numbers plummeted. How could it be? Jets and turboprops made up in dollars for the loss in sales of piston aircraft. Corporations still had money to buy jets.

The difference in 2008 is that both ends of the aircraft buying spectrum are being hit by economic uncertainty, high taxes and more and more regulation. Nine-Eleven was only one factor— though a big one. Mass reaction by an increasingly dependent populace to the occasional accident and subsequent pressures to, for example, to close local airports or tighten regulations on aircraft, pilots, schools– and so forth, play a role. In my case the government induced shrinkage of my needed dollars for necessities have prevented me from flying any more. Yet, for those who can up their income to counter inflation, the costs are not all that unrealistic when compared to other costs. Of course, as the market shrinks there are fewer and fewer convenient opportunities for us to go to a flight school or rent airplanes. The downward trend thus reinforces itself. I expect that we are reaching the European model of general aviation— with few able to afford or put up with severe regulation.

Barring some major cultural reversal General Aviation will continue to shrink and the pool for even the airlines and military to get new pilots will become a serious problem.

What demographic trend am I talking about? The calamitous decline in birthrates in America. It was noticed as long as 174 years ago by the Frenchman, Alexis de Tocqueville that the U. S. had a much higher birthrate than Europe. That and the religious zeal and patriotism— rooted in moral freedom, are what fueled American progress. Sadly, that began to erode in the early 20th century.

Our progress has been ended by a series of events occurring in the 20th century that have taken away the unique American spirit. We are entering a period of decline, not only in birthrate but also in the enthusiasm, optimism and community spirit that used to be our forte. It has been replaced by Big Government and a largely passive public who are afraid of everything.

The state of general aviation will be among the least of our problems.

The only way to restore the numbers of pilots would be to restore the American Culture— something far beyond the vision of your average pilot, or pilot’s association. In tacit recognition of the population problem both AOPA and EAA have lately begun to make noises about “family” and the involvement of spouses and children in our expensive hobby. The one area you will not address is —
Why?

Birthrates began to decline long before Roe v. Wade but it and the feminist movement reduced further not only the birthrate but the success of families. I would bet you a study of recent pilots would show a disproportionate number of them to come from intact families— almost a rarity today. Many studies show children from broken homes— now becoming “normal” — do poorly in life. There are exceptions of course. Such children grow up with two strikes against them, less money and the lack of both parents. Few of them will even think of flying for a hobby— even for making a living.

Immigration cannot make up for the internal population and family collapse. It takes two generations to assimilate. Immigrants today do not even want to assimilate but are here to take what the can before escaping from the coming collapse of America.

Of course, I am voting for McCain and Palin but even their election will do little to stem the tide— the engulfing Culture of Death. Only a miracle will save us.

I really cannot afford to continue my AOPA membership. It expires tomorrow. I will have to use the money for groceries.

Though most Americans still consider themselves Christian only the kind of sacrifice enacted by the Romans will possibly restore real Christianity and save us from going the same way that Rome did. The real Good News in all of this is that faithful followers of Jesus Christ will soon be joined to each other and Him in heaven.

Have a nice day!

Michael H. Smith
715 Grove Avenue
Chase City, Virginia 23924
434-372-5433

Charley Valera, President
Fitchburg Pilots Assoc.

It’s a big issue but one aspect is that voices like ASF are part of the problem. Constantly harping on danger only reinforces the perception that flying is dangerous. Widely-read aviation mags talk about somebody dying at least once in every single issue. By contrast, motorcycle mags rarely mention fatalaties. As Bruce points out, motorcycling and GA are about the same level of risk, as they have been for decades. They’ve both gotten safer by about the same amount, so flying’s constant harping on danger hasn’t been any more effective at improving safety than the motorcycling industry’s much lower key approach. But it’s clear which approach has been better for the respective industry — which franchise would you rather have owned for the last 30 years, one for Piper or one for Harley-Davidson?

Each time I got into aviation I was exposed to a constant drumbeat that it was all about risk management, never about fun. The highest goal, maybe the only goal, seemed to be just to survive. Well hey, the easiest way to do that is just to walk out the door.