Comments on: A really bad week

By: J. R. Bridges III

J. R. Bridges III — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:52:28 +0000

in the stats you compared the number of accidents on this holiday week to an average of weekly accidents in 2007…I would be more interested in comparing this number, 65, to the same holiday week of 2007. Do you have those numbers?
J. R. Bridges III
Plano, Texas

By: Chris Pressley

Chris Pressley — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 19:31:52 +0000

It’s not a mixed message at all. It’s a wake-up call. Perform a thorough pre-flight. Do a simple weight & balance. Don’t push the aircraft beyond it’s capabilities or yours. If you’re a bit rusty, spend $25 for half an hour with your favorite CFI to help eliminate your weaknesses, identify bad habits that may have crept in, and have some fun while doing it. If your CFI is any good, you’ll be wanting more.
None of these accidents occurred because of crowded skies. Inattention to detail, poor judgement, and poor flying skills are to blame.

By: Matt B.

Matt B. — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 18:01:38 +0000

Funny how AOPA encouraged us all to go flying over the weekend…now they are highlighting blogs in ePilot that point out how many people died because the skies were so crowded. That’s a mixed message, AOPA!

By: Allan ORTH

Allan ORTH — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 05:00:00 +0000

Was it really a good idea to encourage everyone to get out there and fly on the
holiday weekend? More airplanes flying, more accidents. Simple statistics. I
guess it could be said that none were midair collisions, so they would have
happened regardless of how many planes were in the sky.

By: Bruce Landsberg

Bruce Landsberg — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 21:01:46 +0000

Great commentary – I’d like to answer in specifics but a huge weakness in our numbers is reliable denominator data. That’s why we are cautious when discussing rates although the FAA’s GA activity survey is significantly better now then it was 5 years ago.

The point about comparing to the same week of another year is a valid approach to answering a different question (whether this year’s worse than last year). The comparison to the weekly average makes the point that the Fourth of July holiday week is worse than most.

In 2007, the last year for which the FAA has published estimates, amateur-built aircraft accounted for 9.5% of the fixed-wing GA fleet, 9.8% of those not used primarily for Part 135 operations, and accounted for 3.8% of estimated flight hours (4.3% of flight hours excluding Part 135). So our best estimate is that homebuilts fly less — certainly less than all those flight-school airplanes!

The Hobsons’ choice is that if the gov’t very carefully measures all our flight hours, privacy is reduced but we’d have much better denominator data. That said, it wouldn’t change ASF’s approach to pilot education – the problem areas remain the same: VFR into IMC, poor takeoff and landing performance, maneuvering flight losses etc. So having the extra data doesn’t really change our educational approach.

…..Bruce

By: Ken Patrick

Ken Patrick — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:03:37 +0000

Bruce:
I’d like to encourage more of this reporting. Too many times we hear about fatal crashes, and forget that “incidents” happen all the time. The GA sector is full of different ratings, aircraft classes, and experience levels. I, for one, don’t fly much anymore, can’t afford it at this time. But I follow the industry, especially the LSA class of aircraft. I’d like to see some more statistical breakdown, as noted above, for the different aircraft, especially the available information about aircraft hours, seat/passenger miles, incident types, etc. Information is valuable, as long as it is complete and reliable. I see no point in getting upset with the reporter, by the way! Thanks for taking a shot at this, and keep it up!

By: Joel Cutler

Joel Cutler — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:57:09 +0000

These data are indeed discouraging, if not unexpected. My only objection to this form of reporting though is the lack of a denominator. It seems to me that accident reporting should be done as a percentage of hours flown. On a holiday weekend in the summer, I’d wager that there were a lot more GA hours flown than on a regular weekend in the winter. If we really want to see if there is a significant change in accident rates we need to measure it on this basis.

By: John Roberts

John Roberts — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:20:26 +0000

I would be interested in seeing the number of accidents and fatalities for highway travel during the same period. Also, instead of providing comparisons to the 2007 weekly averages, shouldn’t you have compared to the same holiday week of 2007 or 2008? Why did you single out older aircraft for a comment?

If you want to scare us, you must do so credibly.

By: Robert Jones

Robert Jones — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:20:24 +0000

Good Job Bruce.

I was going to ask a similar question to Larry’s, without the attitude. I didn’t read it as “editorializng,” just a simple statement of fact. I’m not sure I understand why mentioning that statistic would be so upsetting…

I read the “7″ as 7 out of 65 or 10.7%. (Please correct me if I’m wrong.) Is there any way for Dave to tell what percentage of aircraft flying last week were homebuilts? Maybe percentage of hours flown or sorties? I’m not sure a simple registry count would suffice, since I think homebuilders tend to be more frequent flyers.

If the hourly or sortie data doesn’t exist, what is the percentage of homebuilts to GA?

Thanks again for a great article Bruce. As a recently retired combat Tomcat and Hornet guy, now flying the family around Florida in a Cirrus, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about your last paragraph. It’s absolutely spot on!

All The Best,
Robert Jones
CDR USN (ret.)

By: Bruce Landsberg

Bruce Landsberg — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:15:51 +0000

Larry…..

Thanks much for your note. In 2007, homebuilts made up 16% of all GA aircraft involved in accidents (226 of 1397), a figure that’s been tending to rise over the past decade — so 7 of 65 (11%) is a little lower than expected. This may be damning with faint praise but as near as we can tell, relative to flight hours – homebuilts as a group fly significantly less than factory built so the accident rate per 100,000 hours is higher.

Much of that has to do with the type of flying they are doing and is not a reflection on the aircraft design or its builder. The point of “only” was to praise the activity, as I did with helicopters – no slight intended.

….Bruce