I analyzed this tragedy in my head over and over again since it happened and could not understand it. Until one day with out warning it was a bad day for me to fly. One little mistake, and some stress compounded, in hind sight I noticed that my focus changed, and I could not even communicate with the ATC coherently. Fortunately for me, this was one of the days when my instructor was with me.

Its obvious that the pilot made some huge mistakes to get into IMC. But I really think that once the pilot made contact with ATC, there was very little that could be done to change the outcome IMHO. The pilots responses sounded very much like mine did when I had a bad day. And the result was not due to his experience, but state of mind.
IMHO I think the “Tunnel Vision” also should be addressed, ways to recognize it, and ways to snap out of it.

There has been a lot of great discussion about continued VFR into IMC and the role that competence plays in the safety of a pilot, but I will close by echoing what Melinda has said above: no certificate or license is a “magic bullet” or “get our of free jail card”. As a flight instructor I have had the opportunity to fly with a wide variety of pilots, all with varying levels or experience and capability, but nothing scares me more than an instrument rated pilot who has everything but a sense of his or her own limitations. One such flight comes to mind when in an attempt to reduce my already instrument rated student’s reliance on auto-pilot I challenged them to fly a 1 hour cross country in MVFR to occasional IFR conditions. After approx. 5 seconds of hitting the first cloud on departure I found myself starting at a 45 degree bank, dealing with a very confused departure controller and last but not least a clueless 1500 hr instrument rated student.

I’ve since deployed with the military and have not heard from this individual since leaving, but I often ask and wonder about that person.

Every license is simply a license to learn.

I think it is pointless to try and apply our sensible, PRM oriented logic to understaning what this pilot was thinking, It is safe to say he propably wasn’t a frequent visitor to the ASF website. So what can we do to prevent this kind of thing?
1) Practice practical risk management on the ground and in the air,
2) Take a professional attitude towards our flying and set a good example for our fellow pilots and the non-flying public,
3)Speak up.. if you see a fellow pilot putting themselves or other at risk say something. If they disregard your warning, say something to the passengers and let them know they are at risk.

There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.

Some of us seemed to be wired as risk takers – more to come.

I have flown VFR for 12 years all over the country, landing in 19 states, in a small single-engine aircraft with no weather radar. I have never, ever, not even ONCE, gotten myself into a situation where I needed instrument skills or ATC assistance. You check the weather when you’re on the ground and you look out the window when you’re in the sky. “Sky’s navy blue? Get a clue. Land.” “Can’t see through it? Don’t fly to it. Land.” It isn’t rocket science.

As for Mr. Carroll’s excellent question, “Do you think, if he had made it to the airport and every one had survived, he would have done the same thing over again?” YES! Taking off over gross, pushing on into deteriorating weather, and running low on fuel suggest a long-term pattern of unacceptable risk-taking, not a momentary lapse of good judgment. Pilots who survive through sheer luck believe it’s their “skill” until their luck runs out.

You cannot legislate nor enforce good decision making. For those who cry for “someone” to “do something”, the closest we could come, is to mandate the filing of a VFR flight plan for every flight. Do you really want that? And how’s that working out in China? We have to act responsibly ourselves, and question others when they don’t. I’m a low time student pilot, and I’m not afraid to question a guy who has done something unsafe or even inconsiderate. It doesn’t have to be confrontational, just asking why or pointing out that something doesn’t seem quite right will get them thinking about it, and for most, that will help. Then, there will always be those few who are beyond educating, and they will continue to provide material for lessons such as this.

First of all, the controller did not ask the pilot if he was instrument rated and the pilot did not admit that he was. The controller asked if he was capable of instrument flight and the pilot said yes. The controller was smart in asking the question that way. I believe his training helped him realize that he need not intimidate the pilot by asking if he was rated. He just wanted to get a response related to his competency level. That’s really all he could do. The controller did not want to make a bad situation even worse.

We are listening to a man’s last words before he dies. I think a little more compassion is in order from some of the commenters. True, he made mistakes that took sever peoples lives. Do you think, if he had made it to the airport and every one had survived, that he would have done the same thing over again? I don’t think so.

We have all done incredibly stupid things and learned from them. At least I know I have. Some of the commenters need to watch and listen again. A few need a “reality check.” This wasn’t fiction. If looking/listening to this convinces one additional pilot to make the right decision, based on what he has learned here, then AOPA has done the right thing. BTW, the person responsible for putting this video together did a great job!

In case you are wondering, I am a VFR pilot with just over 1,400 hours. I have owned three planes and have been flying for 32 years.