What’s interesting about Vasquez’s analysis is that the variables seem pretty much ordinary for the inter-tropical convergence zone. CAPE (convective available potential energy–a measure of potential storm severity) values were nowhere near the values we see in midwestern storm complexes. Vasquez estimates cloud tops as being 56,000 feet, which is significant given AF 447′s cruise altitude of 35,000 feet. The worst turbulence may have come after the airplane exited a storm cell.
Data is sparse over the crash region, so Vasquez uses GOES-10 and Meteosat-9 satellite imagery to come up with likely scenarios. His verdict: turbulence was the culprit. But, as always, the jury is still out, and may never come in, unless those voice and data recorders are recovered. My guess is that this will be a landmark accident, in that live data-streaming from the cockpit to ground-based computers will make on-board CVRs and DVRs things of the past.
Tags: Tom Horne