Comments on: Risk management

By: JimSandison

JimSandison — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 01:42:11 +0000

I drive around the Wash. DC belt way every day. The risk of being run over by an 18 wheeler is not unlike flying over lake michigan. Think I would rather be “one and done” in Lake Michigan than all over the beltway.
Jim S.

By: Donald Blust

Donald Blust — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 15:15:07 +0000

I really appreciate the quantitative approach to assessing risk. My private pilot flight training took place at Timmerman field in Milwaukee. Subsequent to becoming a certificated pilot I had ample opportunity to fly over our great lake but always elected not to. With contemporary PLBs, ELTs and proper use of the radio one would think a rescue would occur pretty quickly. Members of my flight club have often discussed their flights throughout the Florida keys…and I have always thought they were pretty daring. Suddenly I feel differently about it all. As I said I like the statistical probability approach. I pride myself on my preparedness and that of my aircraft. I can only imagine the awe-inspiring sensation of being PIC of a single over a large body of water. And I bet making the “go / no go” decision at altitude 20 miles from the departure shore would be a pretty damn exciting moment!

By: Drew

Drew — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 15:38:15 +0000

I think another question to ask is what was your risk of serious injury or death should you have had to ditch in the water. A quick mayday on the radio combined with a good chance of activating that new ELT would result in a coast guard vessel or chopper within 30 minutes or so. I’m guessing you didn’t have a PFD so I’m assuming you felt comfortable enough to be treading water for awhile. Although a water landing can be very unpredictable (even a slight wave could send the aircraft cartwheeling), it isn’t any worse than being forced to land on some semi-rugged terrain that we all fly over every day. The probability of getting away with less-than-major injuries was quite good and certainly amounts to a reasonable amount of risk given aircraft reliability.